Turns out, it does. A few days before and during menstruation, a woman's metabolism ramps up anywhere from 5% to 20%. That would explain this week.
Then I looked at my logs. This is my eighth week logging my food. The first four weeks, I had no problem staying under budget, ending the week 500 to 700 calories under the weekly limit. Then, week five, I was 1454 over budget. Week six, 1203. Week seven, 1811. So far this week, I'm 1279 over.
It's not just the incremental decrease in the calorie limit from losing weight. It's not just a rebellious attitude. I figured out what else happened four weeks ago. I went back on birth control pills.
It's entirely possible that the pills are affecting my appetite and metabolism. Many women report weight gain after starting bcps. It takes about three months for this particular pill to "settle in" when it comes to side effects, so for the next two months, I'm going to keep logging my food and trying to weigh weekly, but not be particularly over-worried if I can't keep to the budget without hunger pains, or if I gain a pound or more back. This actually, timing wise, works out somewhat well. I should be past the adjustment period starting in January. January's always a good time to get back on track.